This website presents a science-based model of the Rule of law (ROL) developed through formal scientific methodology, which addresses fundamental limitations of current ROL models around causation.
While existing models of the ROL rely on correlation-based assumptions to link the ROL with an ideal political form (usually democracy), the science-based model establishes a cause-and-effect framework that explains how the ROL arises, its operational mechanics and direct measurable effects.
In sum, the science-based model identifies the ROL as an emergent property that arises within complex governance systems which necessitate a functional separation of powers. It identifies the separation of powers as being between four components of state – the public, legislature, executive and judiciary – whose functions are together both necessary, and sufficient, to the exercise of state governance, whose access to and exercise of power is based on a closed-system feedback loop whose input/output is subject to a system of gatekeepers based on reason, rationality and logic necessary to system equilibrium and stability over time.
The model predicts both intrastatal as well as interstatal effects of the ROL , details the mechanics through which those effects arise, and provides an objective measurement framework against which to measure state performance agaisnt the ROL, and avenues for the practical application of the ROL to enhance stability of intrastatal governance, and international cooperation in resolving conflicts between states.
It was developed initially in reponse to the inability of current ROL models to explain and resolve ROL failures within the context of he state capture and criminalisation of the South African state in and around 2006. Its later development has taken account of parallels between that SA state capture and failure of the ROL and that of the Russian Federation.
Later development of the model has focused on the jurisdictional gap which the ROL creates and maintains between the domain and authority of one state and another, the red-lines to transgressing that gap, the rise of interstatal relationsihps driven by the risk to sovereignry and independence which transgressing that jurisdictional gap represents to other states, and the interstatal effects of transgressions of that jurisdictional gap. More recently, development of the model has also focussed on the common interest of states in maintaining that jurisdictional gap and avenues to instrumentalise the ROL that are necessary to recogning and protecting that interest, utilising the Russian/Ukraine war and the response of other staate to the risks eventuating from such transgressions.
The science-based model is interoperative with and compatable with current models of the ROL, to the extent that it depends on the same fundamental assumptions that current models depend on, which is that the ROL is a system of governance of states based on the separation of powers, and it utilises the same objective datasets that current models depend upon, namely a composite of ROL principles made precedent and enforceable in law by adjudication.
Current correlation-based models of the ROL can be characterised as defining the ROL as a stable system of governance of states, based on the separation of state powers between various components of state, and the application of varuous ROL principles which have the effect of securing and serving rights and freedoms characteristic of an ideal political form, usually cast as that of democracy.
The application of current models generally takes the form of either enhancing state compliance with various indices of the ROL in expectation that that will improve its performance agaisnt indices of the ideal political form, or vice versa – that of enhancing compliance with indices of the ideal political form in order to enhance compliance with the ROL. And statements as to the validity of current models generally allude to the very strong correlations found betweeen state performance against indices of the ROL and indices of the ideal political form are offered as proof othe validity of this model of the ROL.
Fundamental difficulty underlying current models of the ROL
The fundamental difficuelty with current modesl of the ROL relates to causation. The ROL is usually portray as arising and being maintained reciprocally with the ideal political form. This argument is generally supported by reference to numerous studies that find a strong correlation between state performance against indices of the one and the other.
The fundamental and inescapable problem with all current models of the ROL is that they rest on the false-narrative that correlation-reflects-causation, therefore it is the ideal political form that gives rise to the ROL. Or, therefore, it is the ROL that gives rise to the ideal political form.
Based on that false-narrative, current models are unable to explain what gives rise to the ROL, what its mechanics are, or how those relate to its effects. This, in turn, leaves efforts to apply the ROL rudderless and unable to prove their effectiveness,.
Science-based model of the Rule of law?
The science-based model of the ROL platformed on this website offers a cause-and-effect model which explains what givres rise to the ROL, its mechanics and its effects, which facilitates the directed practical appication of the ROL which has predicted measurable effects
Interoperability of current and science-based models
The science-based model of the ROL is largely inter-operable with current correlation-based models, to the extent that they rest on the same basic assumption that state governance is based on the separation of powers, and to the extent that they utilise the same empirical dataset, provided by ROL principles made enforceable by way of state adjudication.
Given that current models do not identy what gives rise to the ROL, its mechanics and effects, those models are unable to counterdict the science-based models assumptions and hypotheses of these.